Philippa Salter, Neurology Analyst at Global Data, comments: “Having demonstrated strong efficacy in clinical trials, the recent launch of Xcopri will be a strong driver of growth in the adult epilepsy market, particularly during the first half of the forecast period. Global Data forecasts peak sales for Xcopri of $1.47bn in 2027”.
‘Recent drug launches will induce global adult epilepsy market to reach $8.35bn sales by 2023.’
GlobalData recognizes that continued generic erosion will be a significant barrier to growth in the adult epilepsy market.
The patent expiries of several key products, including the blockbuster drugs Xcopri in 2027 and Vimpat in 2022, will significantly negatively impact the sales.
Azurity Pharmaceuticals’ topiramate (ET-101) and zonisamide (ET-104), Eisai’s lorcaserin, Marinus Pharmaceuticals’ ganaxolone, and Takeda Pharmaceutical/Ovid Therapeutics’ soticlestat are expected to launch during the forecast period.
Ganaxolone is the only expected to significantly impact the adult market with the other products predominantly targeted at the paediatric epilepsy population. So, they are not expected to generate enough sales to overcome the decline in sales due to the generic erosion of key products in the market.
Salter adds: “Ganaxolone has shown extremely promising results for treating status epilepticus in clinical trials and key opinion leaders (KOLs) interviewed by GlobalData believe it has the potential to significantly alter how status epilepticus is treated in the future”.
Despite a large number of antiepileptic drugs (AEDs) available on the market, and the promising recently approved drugs such as Xcopri, the need for drugs that provide efficacy for treatment resistant patients, and for drugs with improved safety profiles are incomplete.
Furthermore, many of the drugs currently used allow for symptomatic relief or prevention of seizures, and KOLs have highlighted that curative or disease-modifying therapies will also be highly sought in the epilepsy market.